A Momentous Break in Momentum for Crude Oil

Article by Andrew Thrasher

AndrewThrasherWith the unrest in Egypt, the price of a barrel of oil has stayed elevated. However even with the bullish Flash PMI data out of China this morning, we still aren’t seeing the strength in the oil market as one might expect.

For the last month the price of spot crude oil ($CL_F) has been consolidating around the $108 to $103 area. Looking at the previous declines in crude in 2011 and 2013 we saw similar periods of consolidation before oil corrected to $80/barrel. Taking a closer look at the daily chart below we can see signs of deterioration forming.

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Pesos for Your Thought

Article by Chris Johnston

The Peso is a market I have been talking about each week in the COT videos saying it was setup for a decline, you can see one has begun. This chart shows that this decline started right on time as per the seasonal and there were some other reasons I pointed out this was a setup.

 

aug 22 2013

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Stabilization or Stagnation? Expect Downward Surprise

Article by Mike Shedlock

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ reports states Operating conditions stabilise in August.

Key points

  • Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 50.1 (47.7 in July). Four-month high.
  • Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 50.6 (48.0 in July). Three-month high.

Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

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Socialist Delusion: France Promises Full Employment, a Third Industrial Revolution, an Affordable Housing Utopia in 10 Years

Article by Mike Shedlock

If you are looking for a good laugh today, simply read Ministers set out utopian but hazy vision of a strong France

France’s Socialist government has set out a gleaming vision of the future marked by full employment and cutting-edge factories thanks to “a third industrial revolution”.

The France of tomorrow would be a safer place where justice was quicker and cheaper and where today’s stressful experience of finding affordable housing would be transformed into “a pleasant moment in one’s life”, cabinet ministers said on Monday.

In a speech that ranged from social inclusion to global warming and…

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Is Patience Really a Virtue

Article by Chris Johnston

As I sit here having missed the YM trade and not seeing much in the way of other things that meet my rules I wonder if being patient is such a great thing after all? Ironically one of my entry techniques typically gives me a lot of things to look at and sift through. Even that is not giving me much which is very unusual. I may not take the trades it indicates but typically it gives me several entries to consider. Our Aussie sell was just missed yesterday unfortunately as that appears to be going the direction I was looking. The Canadian is also dropping and that is one I have been waiting on along with the Peso. Neither of those markets had either of my entry scenarios lined up even though they were very close. I will keep harping on what I always do which is that I want to trade when my rules tell me to and not chase my tail trying to back my way into something. This is my way it is not for everyone. It does make for profitable trading as my trading services prove but it does also bring periods like this occasionally where no trades are done. It is frustrating believe me.

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The Levels to Watch and What Could Kill the Rally

Article by Andrew Thrasher

AndrewThrasherYesterday’s price action gave us an interesting setup with the S&P 500 ($SPX). As the chart below shows, we broke the trend line (again) from the November ’12 low. We had a false break in June that was corrected and led to new highs, will the same thing happen this time?

Yesterday’s price action took the DJIA to its 100-day MA, which was a topic of SentimenTrader’s note this morning. The 100-day moving average acted as support during the June swoon before we took off to new highs in the major indices. I’ll be watching this moving average if we continue to experience weakness and the current support at the 50-day MA is unable to hold up.

spx

What’s still concerning is the…

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422 Futures Trading Rooms in the US: The StrategyLab.com

Article by Dean A. Handley, PhD, MBA, JD

2The Strategy Lab (TSL) presents as a straight forward, no-nonsense chat room (not a signal calling room) owned and operated by M.A. Perry (aka wbrtrader), situated in Quebec, Canada. TSL is open 9:00~4.00 EST (14:00-21:00 Zulu), 5 days a week; it is all trader, no vendor (quoting Mr. Perry). This evaluation of TSL is the 15th in this Room in Review series room description hosted by MarketClips. It is also the first room to be profiled in the Altruistic Andromeda All-Star series [1].

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Straddle Run

Article by Dan Burke

The United States level of Jobless Claims for week of August 10, 2013 registered up 320K.  The consensus was for a rise of 330K.

Grains
The December Corn is currently 464 last.  The Dec Corn 460 straddle (99 days to expiration) is showing a last value of 45-7.  The implied volatility is off lightly as the market trades upward with a bit of force.  It is my opinion that Corn will move lower.

The November Soybeans are trading 1250-2 last.  The Nov Bean 1230 straddle (71 days to expiration) is showing a last trade of 88-2.  The implied volatility is bid as prices move upward past the resistance of 1240.  I believe the Beans will return to the downside.

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Patience

Article by Chris Johnston

I want to touch on something probably nobody wants to hear about. I have often used the phrase “let the game come to me” that athletes use in a mocking fashion as a joke when I am being lazy to poke fun at myself. However there is a lot of truth to this idea. I know day traders wake up every day and feel like the have to do something once an hour or perhaps even more frequently. After all what is the point of day trading if you are not doing anything?

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